Kyle Lohse’s Upcoming Return Puts Management in a Bind

In a season where Kyle Lohse has seemingly discovered ways to get hurt other than from throwing a pitch, we could soon receive some major help (and relief) in the rotation.

Lohse suffered a strained flexor muscle on June 4 after diving for a ground ball. This eventually put him on the disabled list for the first time in his nine-year career.

Right away, the team was thinking Kyle would be out at least a month, maybe more. However, after experiencing no complications during his Sunday 40-pitch bullpen session, the target comeback is set at early-July – Possibly the Cubs series in Chicago (10th-12th).

Hopeful that Lohse may reappear before the All-Star break, the Cardinals have placed their No. 3 starter on a program that calls for him to throw off a mound on alternate days.

When asked about his return, Lohse said, “For a while it was hard to project anything at all. I couldn’t be sure how certain activities would make it feel, much less throwing a ball. That’s gone now. I’m hoping there won’t be any more setbacks and I can get back as soon as possible.”

With 15-game winner from 2008 coming back in a few weeks, management is going to have a big decision to make. Who to drop from the rotation?

There are a few directions available.

The one that first comes to mind is simply putting Todd Wellemeyer in the bullpen. Wellemeyer has a 5.53 ERA in 86 innings pitcher and has given up 12 runs in the previous three starts.

The team could also think about bringing up Mitchell Boggs from AAA-Memphis. Boggs had a very good stint as a Cardinal starter this year, but has struggled recently as a Redbird in the Minors. His 3.22 ERA and 20 Ks in 22 IP as a starter in St. Louis was very impressive, but his ERA north of five in Triple-A is very alarming.

Another option (not a very popular one) is bringing Brad Thompson back into his normal position as the long-reliever for the Cards. While it seems stupid at first, that is a Cardinal Management-like move. It seems like the always side with the struggling veteran over the proven youngster (i.e. Mitchell Boggs). Brad has certainly shocked most with his great pitching of late and has likely sealed a spot in the rotation for a while. He now rides a 3.87 ERA in 37 innings pitched and has the best start of his career fresh in his mind from last week (6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K).

IF I was part of Management, this decision would take about five seconds.

Todd Wellemeyer was murdered yet again out there last night against a sub-par Mets lineup without Reyes, Delgado, AND Beltran. He was obliterated for 10 hits in five innings and allowed five runs. This seems to be the norm for the Todalion, but La Russa just keeps running him out there to get killed. Time, after time, after time.

There are only nine starting pitchers in the MLB with a higher ERA, and his seven losses rank 5th highest in the NL. He allows over 15 baserunners per nine innings pitched… which is the worst such stat in the MLB.

Some of his struggles have been blamed on “bad luck”. But it is more than bad luck with him.

Sure, opponents’ batting average for balls-in-play against him is substantially higher than the average MLB mark, but it is much more than that.

Somebody needs to tell the guy to get the ball down. If he can’t do that, then why is he in the Majors?
BALL UP = LINE DRIVES
BALL DOWN = GROUND BALLS

Out of all the starting pitchers that have taken the mound for STL this year, Wellemeyer has the worst ground ball percentage at 48%. The rest of the Cardinals regular starters have that mark above 60%.

The rest of it lies with his inability to finish off an inning. HALF of the runs that Wellemeyer has allowed have come with two outs.

He also needs to start using his slider more often. Todd threw his slide-piece 24% of the time. This year, that percentage is at 17. If he wants to know which pitch to layoff a little, tell him his fastball. Batters are crushing it. Whether it is due to his decreasing velocity, or him just missing location all together, batters are locked in.

Especially lefties who are batting .349/.421/.622 on the season.

I am interested to see what the team plans to do when Lohse returns. Wellemeyer is obviously the consensus pick by the fans, but what will the Front Office think about sitting one of the team’s best pitchers from a year ago… Not to mention one that is making $4 million this season.

Justin Hulsey
Cardinals Front Office

P.J. Walters… Again? Really?

I like the guy's future... but not this season.

On Friday, June 12, P.J. Walters got the recall. May I ask why?

Walters was first called up when the club purchased his contract on April 18, but after a few rough outings, was sent down to make room for the versatile Brad Thompson. Walters made only one start, but had logged five appearances as a Major Leaguer before being sent back down.

His one start began very well, but had fallen apart toward the end against the Chicago Cubs. That one start resulted in four innings of work with three earned runs against him, but he did show promise and the club kept him around for the meantime.

In only four innings, Walters had K’d seven Cubs and only walked one. Considering P.J. is a very young and inexperienced pitcher, many of the coaches were worried about Walters’ control. In that start, control did not appear to be an issue.

However, in his next six innings of his MLB career, Walters did in fact run into some control problems with four walks. After his first start, he was moved into that long reliever position. In his 6.1 innings of relief, he had given up seven runs and the team sent him down.

You would think that things would get better down there, right? Wrong.

Well…ok…I’ll give him that much. He did get a LITTLE better. So far this season, Walters has a 4.14 ERA in 50 innings and is currently rockin’ a 2-5 record in Triple-A.

So I again ask why? Why does he get the call up on Friday? Is he the best pitcher we have at Memphis? I listen to most of the Redbird games in the internet, and Walters is not the top pitcher down there.

Fourteen rookies have made their way to the Cardinals’ active roster this season (not a good thing). Walters is one of them and he is now on his second stint.

SO, not only are bringing a mediocre AAA pitcher up… We are bringing up another rookie that is simply not ready. Walters is 24 years old and was drafted in 2006. The 11^th rounder only has two full years of Minor League ball under his belt, and this is was the first season that he started out in Memphis.

In his 172 total innings pitched at the AAA level, batters are hitting just under .260 against him. His ERA is a plump 4.68 with the Redbirds.

Who would I have brought up? Not Walters.

How about…

Clayton Mortensen
6-3, 3.38, 74 IP, 24 years old

Josh Kinney
1-1, 3.24, 25 IP, 30 years old

Evan MacLane
2-4, 2.92, 52 IP, 26 years old

Royce Ring
2-0, 1.93, 23 IP, 30 years old

Matthew Scherer
0-0, 2.05, 31 IP, 27 years old

I would say that all of those guys are just as good as…

P.J. Walters
2-5, 4.14, 50 IP, 24 years old

You could say that most of those guys are prospects and may not be ready for the Majors (same with Walters). If that is the case, check out Ring or Kinney. Both are past prospect-status and have MLB experience.

Royce Ring has the most experience, and has had some decent success. He has 66 innings under his belt with the Mets, Braves, and Padres. Before last season, he had a 2.93 ERA. However, last year he hit a bit of a rough patch as a reliever. He did have four holds in 22 innings, but also had an ERA just above eight.

Josh Kinney has actually already been with the Big League club this year, but was sent down after only 2.2 innings of work. Walks were his biggest problem with his enormous ERA. He had four total walks in those 2.2 innings. However, he had a pretty damn good start to his career before he needed his Tommy John Surgery. Kinney made a huge impact on that 2006 World Series team with an accumulation over 6 innings of three hit ball (no runs). That ’06 season was definitely his best. Josh threw over 25 innings with a 3.24 ERA and 22 strikeouts. Kinney’s career ERA is 55 points under the Cardinals’ earned run average this season. The most impressive stat is his opponents average. Throughout his career, opponents have hit Kinney at a .177 clip. Woah.

All considering, IF I was John Mozeliak, I would have never brought up Walters again. Walters may be able to contend for a rotation spot next year if he improves over the offseason, but this is not his season to be promoted. I would have likely sided with Josh Kinney just because I think Mortensen needs some more time in AAA.

 Justin Hulsey
Cardinals Front Office

Why Cards Should Consider Tom Glavine

Glavine pitching against the Cards in August of 2000

Yesterday (June 4), Ken Rosenthal reported that Tom Glavine, 22-year veteran, was released by the Atlanta Braves.

Glavine was placed on the disabled list on April 2^nd and has been recovering from his shoulder and elbow surgeries. He had just finished up a great rehab stint when the club informed him of his release. Glavine’s latest start, in Low-A, resulted in six strong innings with two strike outs, and no walks on June 2^nd.

In February, Glavine signed a bonus-filled $1 million contract that had him locked up with the Braves through the 2009 season. That is irrelevant now that they have released him. Meaning, a team would sign him to an entirely different deal if they were to pick him up.

The long time dominant lefty is certainly angered by the recent events. Rightfully so. Here is what Glavine had to say about the stunning release.

“Quite honestly, I was looking forward to finishing my career here, pitching one last time, so to speak, and then walking off and being a part of this organization for the rest of my life. I feel a sense of betrayal, a little bit. I have a little bit of resentment for the way things were handled. Had I been told, you’re going to go on a rehab and you’re going to have to make the team again, then I think that becomes very different for me. What I was told was here is your rehab schedule and if everything goes well, here’s when you’ll pitch in Atlanta. Everything went well. I was healthy and ready to go and that’s not the way that it went.”

Today, Glavine and his agent discussed the pitcher’s future by saying, “a couple teams are interested”.

Is one of those teams the St. Louis Cardinals - who all of a sudden find their selves in trouble when it comes to SP? Doubtful. When asked about Glavine, Mo said, “We have not, and will not contact Tom Glavine.”

Mozeliak is a man of his word, but should we contact Glavine? Yes.

 The guy just seems like a Cardinal doesn’t he? If that doesn’t convince you, take a look at the 45 year old’s resume.

 2 Cy Young Awards
1 World Series Most Valuable Player Award
4 All Star Game Appearances
305 Career Wins, 2607 Strike outs, 3.54 ERA, 22 years
15-7 in 2006 with 3.82 ERA
13-8 in 2007

Not only is Glavine was of the best left handed pitchers of all time, but he can still bring it. He has had one injury that has kept him from pitching a ton the past two years, but his 2006-2007 stats show that there is a chance he can still be affective. 28 wins in two years is pretty impressive… better than anybody on the entire pitching staff did in that time span.

I wouldn’t necessarily tell you that is saying much though either.

With Lohse heading to the disabled list, our rotation could find itself in a bit of a pickle. That is just one more reason to contact Glavine. What do we have to lose? Nothing.

With Lohse out 3-4 weeks, our pitching staff will look like this for about a month:

Chris Carpenter … 4-0, 0.71 ERA, 31 K
Adam Wainwright … 5-3, 3.38 ERA, 59 K
Joel Pineiro … 5-5, 3.86 ERA, 25 K
Todd Wellemeyer … 5-5, 5.05 ERA, 39 K
Brad Thompson … 0-1, 4.12 ERA, 6 K

So every five days, we get one great start, a decent start, another decent (if lucky) start, bull shit from Todd, and then a mediocre-at-best start. The way our team is hitting right now, we have a good chance to win once every five days.

Why not get a hold of Glavine? I wish I could answer that. There is no risk and the reward is beautiful for what we would pay him… which is “minimum wage” in the world of Major League Baseball.

IF the experiment works, we are looking at a MUCH better rotation. We would have the strong top half of the rotation with Carp, Waino, and Pin Head. But instead of two pretty good AAA pitchers bringing up the rear, we would bring in a future Hall of Famer that is determined to prove the Braves wrong, and pick and choose from whoever is pitching best… Likely Wellemeyer, Thompson, or a guy in Memphis such as Mitchell Boggs or Blake Hawksworth.

The point is, without a healthy Lohse, our rotation could go from hero to zero. Especially if we have Wellemeyer and Thompson BOTH in there.

Wellemeyer has been pretty god awful this year. He has been better of late and says he has “found the problem”, but nothing changes that ERA above five, the 16 earned runs in the past five games, or the 1.62 WHIP that is WELL above the MLB average. But whoever said Wellemeyer was near MLB average?

Thompson was very good in his last start, but do not let that fool you. If you think we will get that kind of support every time he takes the hill, you are sorely mistaken. Brad has a 4.23 lifetime ERA. Not to mention his struggles when he starts. He made six starts last year and had a 5.15 ERA in those starts. Thompson had 17 starts in ’07 with a 4.73 ERA. To say he is historically bad as a SP may be an understatement.

IF I was John Mozeliak, I would get Tom Glavine’s number. Not only would I do that, I would sign the all timer for the $400,000 it would cost. If that cheap-ass DeWitt doesn’t approve that, then I give up.

Justin Hulsey
Cardinals Front Office

Cardinals Receive Needed Offensive Help

Ryan Ludwick

The Cardinals may be on a roll of late, but you can’t hide the fact that the offense is in a slump. St. Louis is 7-2 in the previous nine games, but have only scored more than five runs once in the past three weeks.

The scuffling offense gets one of its biggest weapons back on Friday night, and not a day too soon.

All Star slugger, Ryan Ludwick, is scheduled to be activated this Friday when the 28-19 Cardinals take on the 23-23 Giants in San Francisco this weekend.

Ludwick experienced a strained right hamstring on May 12^th when he dove for a fly ball against Pittsburgh.

The Cards, who were the MLB’s best offensive team in the first few weeks of the season, scored an average of three runs per game with Ludwick out of the lineup. In the early stages of this season, St. Louis had a scoring average of above five.

With Luddy coming off the DL, somebody will have to be sent down to Memphis. IF I was John Mozeliak, this would be the hardest decision of this season so far.

The likely candidates to be sent down are Stavinoha and Brad Thompson.

Stavinoha has been hot of late, but it would kill me to send down a hot bat in the middle of the team’s offensive slump. However, with Rasmus, Ankiel, Ludwick, and Duncan… Stavi would see little playing time and almost be wasted.

On the other end of the spectrum, Brad Thompson has been the definition of waste. Many argue that he is in the lineup just in case a starting pitcher implodes in the second inning. Well that is great but Thompson has only pitched TWICE since May 8^th. We just do not need 13 pitches on the roster.

Another option would be to move Khalil Greene to the DL and basically just switch roles with Ludwick. While Khalil CERTAINLY needs to be DLed, I think the Greene-Ludwick exchange would hurt us… as it would only leave us with one bench infielder. The lack of depth in the infield concerns me, so I would wait to put Khalil on the DL until Tyler Greene is available to promote (June 3).

As the GM, I would demote Nick Stavinoha. I hate saying that, but he would get little playing time due to the outfield depth we already have.

—

Not only is Ludwick expected to start on Friday, Cardinal outfielder Rick Ankiel is also part of the plan for tomorrow.

Ankiel was actually activated from the DL on the 24^th, but had taken the Milwaukee series off after he experienced soreness throughout his body after his Sunday start.

There’s no question, it’s especially Ludwick that’s been missed in the batting order.. Ankiel is off to something of a slow start this year, whereas Ludwick already had eight home runs in 30 games and is slugging .538. Ank, one of the streakiest players on the team, has hit .247 with only two home runs in his 85 at bats this year.

It is obvious that the offense is just not the same without these two. If you combine Rick and Luddy’s 2008 stats, you will find one helluva player. When you take out these two, you take out a .283 average, 62 HR, and 184 RBI. Basically, home run wise, just envision at McGwire-less 1998 Cardinal team.

“Ludwick’s a quality producer, so he’s got to make it better,” manager Tony La Russa said.

The main victim of these injuries has unarguably been Albert Pujols. Opponents have been able to pitch around the St. Louis Cardinals star following the injuries to Ludwick and Ankiel that left Pujols with little protection. He drew four intentional walks in last weekend’s series against Kansas City — one of them with two on and no outs — and seven walks overall. Albert has been walked 12 times in the past six games.

With no reason to pitch to Pujols, he is finding it hard to get into a groove. There is little difference between what he is experiencing now and pinch-hitting. Lately he’s only getting a chance to hit twice a game at the most due to the ridiculous amount of walks. When he gets his protection back, expect more real at bats, and look for Pujols to heat it up a little bit.

The Cardinals have still found a way to breathe with two of their top three sluggers out of the lineup thanks to amazing pitching. The opposition has only scored a mere eight runs in the past seven days.

St. Louis will likely take a dose of there own medicine when they visit the Bay City this weekend. They will face greater pitching with Cain, Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez taking the mound.

I suspect more 2-3 games in the next few days. With Lohse missing his Friday start due to a “burning cramp” in his elbow that may DL him, Pineiro, Carpenter, and Waino will take the mound for the Redbirds at AT&T Park where the Cards are 12-15.

Both teams’ offense has been pretty poor of late. Hopefully, the return of Ludwick and Ank will spark something in St. Louis’ lineup.

Justin Hulsey
Cardinals Front Office