Cardinals Shopping For Third Baseman

 

Do MO/DeWitt have the stones to pursue DeRosa?

A week ago we Cardinal fans pretty much thought the sky falling. We could not hit, we could not pitch, and we could not field. We were struggling at every aspect of the game possible.

The Cards had lost three in a row and it seemed like everybody was hurting. Since Monday, we have allowed two runs against what most thought to be the best team in the NL. After this series, people are starting to realize that they are not the best team in their own division.

We put an absolute ass whoppin’ on Chicago (saying that felt good), and came out of the gates hot against Kansas City tonight. In our four game winning streak, we have outscored the opponent 13-2.

While the offense was not outstanding vs the Cubs, it was obviously good enough. When you have three straight GEMS, you do not have to put up a seven spot every game.

However, I have seen some good things on the offensive side these past two games. On Thursday, we managed three runs six hits. Tonight, our offense looked much better with five runs on seven hits, a Tyler Greene home run, and a Khalil Greene two-RBI double. Khalil has had at least one RBI in the past couple games.

When looking at our lineup offensively, there is one major hole.

Our third basemen have collectively batted .252 with three home runs and 17 RBI. Looking at that, you see a struggling player. BUT WAIT, these are the total stats of not one player, not two players, but FOUR players. To add insult to injury, the players that have played 3B this season have struck out 24 times while slotted at the five position.

How do we fix it? We gotta reach outside of the organization.

Brett Wallace is too young and inexperienced. People say if he is ready, bring him up. Why take that risk? Why jeopardize our best Minor League prospect? The difference between AAA and the MLB is astronomical.

While Barden is good, he is not the solution for a playoff contending team. If Barden can keep his average above .275 while playing every day, then we can keep with him. But I don’t know if he can.

We could wait for Troy Glaus, but NOBODY knows when that could be. Reports now are saying a July comeback is possible. Even if he does make it in time for the final run, who know how good he could be? That is IF he comes back.

We don’t have an option if we want to contend for a Ring. We have to take these rumors and convert them into actual players.

In the past week, there has been immense talk about the Cardinals looking to trade for a 3B. When there are four different reports saying the same thing but with a different team, you’d be naïve not to listen to them.

There have been many conflicting reports, but here are the main candidates:

Adrian Beltre
The 30 year old Seattle third baseman is struggling right now, but always does in the early portion of the season. He is currently batting .205 but is sure to bring that up.

As most of you know, Beltre made a name for himself in 2004 when he took the NL MVP award with the Dodgers. Do not expect to see the 48/121 line that Beltre had back then, but he is capable up 25 homers and 90 RBI. I mean, hell, the guy has averaged 26 HRs and 93 RBI.

162 GM average: .269, 25 HRs, 88 RBI
Contract: $13.4 million

Garrett Atkins
Just like Beltre, Atkins has struggled of late. Atkins has more than Beltre, with a .187 average in COLORADO. If you are hitting .187 in the easiest place to hit in the country, why should we think it will be better in St. Louis?

Atkins is the only candidate that is still in his 20s. Again, he plays in Coors Field and history shows us that hitters leaving Colorado have a hard time in their new location.

Atkins is probably the best hitter out of all the players the Cards are interested, I would be too if I played in Denver. Although a great hitter in Colorado is still a good hitter everywhere else. Perfect example would be his splits for this season… Atkins is batting .215 at home, and .166 when the visitor.

162 GM average: .292, 22 HRs, 105 RBI
Contract: $7.0 million

Melvin Mora
There are some pros and cons to this one. Mora is playing well, and always has been very good, but is creeping his way toward 40 yrs old.

He is on pace for 85 RBI, and when healthy, can get that number up to 100 every time. Last season, he WAS healthy all year and totaled 105 RBI while sporting a hefty .488 LG%.

162 GM average: .279, 20 HRs, 82 RBI
Contract: $8.0 million

Mark DeRosa
This is the interesting one. DeRosa is more of a utility player than anything, but can certainly play third. He is listed as a 3B/RF, but can actually play third, second, first, and the entire outfield.

The Cards need a third baseman, but if we even had any injury that involved a middle infielder, DeRosa could take that role to. He is very versatile and has said over and over he can play any position on the field.

Before heading to Cleveland, DeRosa played with Chicago for a couple years. Last season was the best of his career with the Cubs when he belted over 20 HRs and 87 RBI. It would be a good shot in the arm for the Cubs if we landed DeRosa.

DeRosa has been on a tear lately, and has put together a nice season so far. In the past week, Mark is batting .326… bringing his season average to .256. He already has six home runs and 27 RBI, so it looks like his 2008 was no fluke.

He is the best fit for the Cards, and is the one the organization is most interested in. With lack of infield depth, DeRosa would be a major lift for the offense.

162 GM average: .278, 13 HR, 66 RBI
Contract: $5.5 million

There is one problem though. For any of these trades to take place we will need to give up “starting pitchers that are MLB-ready”. That is what all of the teams are asking for, and I don’t know if MO/DeWitt are ready to deal that.

In fact, I don’t even know if there are any SPs that we are willing to give up. I would say Blake Hawksworth or Clay Mortenson could be the ones that get moved, but are they MLB-ready? The only guy that I can think of that is young and MLB-ready would be Mitchell Boggs.

It kills me to say this, but I think Boggs could be on his way out. I hope I am wrong, but who else? I don’t think the Cards would deal anybody that is currently in the rotation considering our SP is the best in the majors this week. Why would they look to disrupt that?

IF I was John Mozeliak, I would do whatever it takes to land one of these four guys.

Cardinals Update 5/16

Colby Rasmus

It’s been less than a year since Brett Wallace was drafted with the Cardinals first-round pick, and he has bolted through the Farm.

The No.2 prospect Cardinal Front Office’s top-10 list was drafted with the 13^th pick last year and was sent straight to the A+ club in Quad Cities. With the MLB draft, a player can join the club’s system mid-season. So, Wallace was immediately the starting 3Bman for the Bandits. With Quad Cities, in 41 games, he batted nearly .330 with five home runs, 25 RBI, and a .418 OBP.

Wallace was invited to Spring Training this season and was designated to AA Springfield. He came out of the games slow but has turned it on lately, batting .400 in the past 10 games. Believe it or not, he actually smashed walk-off home runs in consecutive days. When Memphis starting 3Bman David Freese went on the DL this morning, there was no option but to bring the slugger up.

The lefthanded-hitting hitter has hit .281 with five home runs and 16 RBI on the season.

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We all know Colby Rasmus is notoriously well known for his slow starts. Just the switching of the months has brought Raz an extra 29 points on the batting average this season.

Rasmus has always been known for his five-tool potential. When drafted, he was described by a scout as a “35/35” type of player. Meaning, Rasmus has 35 home run / 35 stolen base potential.

Yet, in the first month, Rasmus’ power has been nearly invisible. He did have one towering shot against the Nationals, but that was it for the “35 home run” guy.

Well, if you were watching the Pirates game on Thursday, you saw every bit of that power when Rasmus drilled one into the Allegheny River. Then, last night, it was almost déjà vu. Rookie Colby Rasmus provided the lead with his second home run in as many games. His first career home run at Busch Stadium would have been a two-run shot deep into the right-field stands… except it, like the game, became unofficial with the rainout.

I have really been impressed with Rasmus so far this season. His patience at the plate, as a 22 year-old, is amazing. For example, Rasmus averages nine BB/9. While the guy he looks to steal a starting spot over, Rick Ankiel, averages seven per 9 innings.

All Spring, the coaches told Rasmus just to hit line drives. A player that has that kind of natural power like Rasmus does, often comes in and wants to impress by knocking the ball over the fence. Little do they know, that often results in strikeout after strikeout after strikeout.

Rasmus has NOT done that. Just the opposite actually. He has gone out there looking to fill gaps. In fact, 20% of Rasmus’ hits have been “line drives” per Fan Graphs.

Hitting a home run is the last thing on Rasmus’ mind, and that may just be the key in Rasmus’ power emergence.

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“I think St. Louis is tired of hearing me talk about what I need to do and what I don’t need to do,” said Wainwright, who has a 5.23 ERA in his past five starts. “It’s time for me to go out there and do it.”

Well, Waino sure did “it” today. In 8 innings, Wainwright allowed two hits and one run on seven strikeouts. He was lights out. While our piss poor offense could not score a single run for him, Adam had his best start in a very long time.

According to Wainwright, the problem was identified after his previous start. The flaw, Wainwright believes, was a change in his release point when he pitches. He had started to pitch with his arm too high, which was affecting the movement and location of his pitches – especially his fastball.

Other than that, as a fan, I could not help to notice how many fastballs he did throw… or did not throw. Waino has thrown his fastball less and less from year to year throughout career. Before today’s start, he threw it 51% of the time this season. Last year, he threw it 53% of the time and 56% in 2005.

Today, however, was WAY different. Through the first two innings, 27 of Wainwright’s 32 pitches were fastballs. Now you may think that is to much… but Wainwright was virtually perfect. 

As Wainwright pitched more and more fastballs, it sure did seem like he became the player we have been used to the past couple seasons.

—–

In other news: 

Chris Carpenter aims for early-week start
Brendan Ryan activated, Boggs sent down
Todd Wellemeyer sucks

Building a Young-Gun Rotation Starts With Rex Brothers

The Draft is approaching and the Cards are looking to add to their stockpile of prospects. Lately, management has done a very good job in drafts. Hell, 350-some teams passed on Albert Pujols before he became one of the best hitters of all time. Our past first-round picks include Brett Wallace in ’08, Pete Kozma in ’07, Tyler Greene in ’05, and Colby Rasmus in ’04. Wallace, Rasmus, and Kozma lead the charge in the minors as two of the organization’s top-10 prospects, not to mention Greene and Rasmus who both play for the big-league team (Rasmus starts).

There is no doubt that we have done better in the first-round lately than we did in the late 90’s and early this century. There was an 11 year span in the Draft where only four of the first-rounders players reached the big leagues. Ever heard of Bret Wagner, Chance Caple, Shaun Boyd, Blake Williams, Justin Pope, Daric Barton, or Chris Lambert? Exactly. All were first round picks, and all were busts. Over the past five years though, the Cardinals have really stepped it up on draft day. I would only consider one of our last first-round picks a bust in Adam Ottavino.

When the Draft roles around in early June (only a month away), the Cards will look to improve our minor-league system and St. Louis’ future even more.

Most Mock Drafts have the Cardinals taking an outfielder like Tim Wheeler or Jake Marisnick, but I do not understand the logic in that. We have a VERY deep outfield throughout STL and the farm system. We have four starting OFers in St. Louis right now, none of which are young. In five years, when a first-round OF would hopefully be brought up, we would likely have Ludwick, Rasmus, and Duncan starting in the outfield. There is no room for an OF prospect unless we want him to be a lifetime bench player. If we would take a OF, that means we expect to get rid of two of our four current OF stars… which I see no need in.

Another way we could go would be third base. We took a 3Bman in the first-round last year in Brett Wallace, but he is currently being converted to a first baseman. If the power-hitting Brett Wallace is in fact expected to be a first baseman, then we still need to build up our depth at the 3B position. Excluding Wallace, we do not have a prospect a 3B. If I am the GM, I want a prospect or two at every single position. And while I like the options at 3B after round one, there are very few good third basemen high up on the Draft board.

So, if I was John Mozeliak, I would take one of the many starting pitching prospects that will make up the first round.

There are plenty of them to choose from. With so many great pitchers available, and the need for starting pitching, I think we would be stupid not to take a SP. Also, I have a philosophy that great pitching beats great hitting. Front Offices in the NFL often take the defense-first approach when assembling a team. Take the Baltimore Raves for example… They go defense, defense, defense and that works. It is very similar to how I would build the Cardinals. While I prefer offense over defense in the NFL, I think to be a good team you must have great starting pitchers in the MLB.

In five years, I guarantee Carpenter, Piniero, and Wellemeyer will not be as good as they are now. Just looking over what we have right now, it would be a rotation similar to Waino, Lohse, Garcia, Walters, and then we start stretching. While Jockety would have traded a couple prospects for a veteran SP, I prefer the build-from-within approach. Replenish that stock pile every year to where you have an up-and-coming prospect making an MLB debut every year. Pretty soon you have 27 year old, in-prime stars making up your team.

At the 19^th position in the draft this year, the Cards organization may not have a ton of starters to choose front. Most of the superstars will be taken already, but I can assure you there are still some MLB All Stars out there.

The phenomenal Steven Strasburg will likely be taken with the #1 pick by the Nationals who will eventually get over the fact that they have to give him a 55 million dollar MLB contract just to sign him. Aaron Crow will be taken in the top-5 for the second consecutive year. Missouri’s very own Kyle Gibson also leads the pack of super-prospects in the ’09 Draft.

With those guys gone by the time we are up to select, there will only be a few options to go with in taking a starter. The could look at the hard-throwing James Paxton from Kentucky, the polished lefty from Vanderbilt in Mike Minor, or the controversial but solid Andy Oliver.

Hey, those guys are pretty damn good, but the one player that I am eyeing down is Rex Brothers from Lipscomb. He has been flying up the draft boards with every start he has had. In 75 innings pitched this season, he has 112 strikeouts… which are behind only Strasburg’s total of 147 in the Nation.

For pure arm-strength, Brothers is near the top of the lefty crop for 2009; scouts say it’s the best they have ever seen. He throws 92-95 MPH in the first inning and still hits those velocities in the sixth.  More impressively, he holds those velocities whether he throws the ball high, low, or from the stretch. Brothers is what you’d call “effectively wild” with his fastball.  I expect his fastball command to become average in the future. Similar to Joel Zumaya’s fastball to be honest.

Brothers’s slider is a hard one in the 84-87 MPH range. It has a hard downward bite to the point it looks like a curvball. Brothers’ slider isn’t a strikeout pitch as much as a miss-the-wood-barrel pitch. It is certainly average now but project it to plus.  I think it can become a major bat-breaker against wood.

He rarely throws his changeup, but he does have one at about the 82-84 MPH range.  They are mostly straight, but he says he doesn’t have a lot of feel for it yet.  In time, it should be an okay show-me pitch. 

So you have a lefty who should be durable (because of his middle and lower-body strength, okay arm-action) with a plus velocity fastball and a future plus slider.  He showed a good amount of poise too; he doesn’t have a very good team behind him and that makes for a lot of squibbler hits.  When facing Rex, do not expect to make good contact… He refuses to let up a big hit.

Some teams will knock him down for his body-type, seeing that he has minimal projection, and the risk of becoming overweight. I agree he’s not projectable, but don’t think his body is bad at all for a pitcher and there are plenty of overweight hurlers in the big leagues, if he should go that direction. He’s very strong and athletic. Brothers even shows nimble feel with his quick pickoff throw.

I think he’s got a real chance to fall into the Cardinals’ lap at #19, and he’s quite the package.  I’m not shocked if he is drafted before the Cards though. Only time will tell, but Brothers is the kind of pitcher who can become a quality #2/#3 for a contender.  He should move through the lower minors quickly and get through AA and AAA by gaining more command of the corners.

Cardinal management would be silly not to take a hurler. I’m just saying… IF I was John Mozeliak, I would draft Rex Brothers.