Building a Young-Gun Rotation Starts With Rex Brothers

The Draft is approaching and the Cards are looking to add to their stockpile of prospects. Lately, management has done a very good job in drafts. Hell, 350-some teams passed on Albert Pujols before he became one of the best hitters of all time. Our past first-round picks include Brett Wallace in ’08, Pete Kozma in ’07, Tyler Greene in ’05, and Colby Rasmus in ’04. Wallace, Rasmus, and Kozma lead the charge in the minors as two of the organization’s top-10 prospects, not to mention Greene and Rasmus who both play for the big-league team (Rasmus starts).

There is no doubt that we have done better in the first-round lately than we did in the late 90’s and early this century. There was an 11 year span in the Draft where only four of the first-rounders players reached the big leagues. Ever heard of Bret Wagner, Chance Caple, Shaun Boyd, Blake Williams, Justin Pope, Daric Barton, or Chris Lambert? Exactly. All were first round picks, and all were busts. Over the past five years though, the Cardinals have really stepped it up on draft day. I would only consider one of our last first-round picks a bust in Adam Ottavino.

When the Draft roles around in early June (only a month away), the Cards will look to improve our minor-league system and St. Louis’ future even more.

Most Mock Drafts have the Cardinals taking an outfielder like Tim Wheeler or Jake Marisnick, but I do not understand the logic in that. We have a VERY deep outfield throughout STL and the farm system. We have four starting OFers in St. Louis right now, none of which are young. In five years, when a first-round OF would hopefully be brought up, we would likely have Ludwick, Rasmus, and Duncan starting in the outfield. There is no room for an OF prospect unless we want him to be a lifetime bench player. If we would take a OF, that means we expect to get rid of two of our four current OF stars… which I see no need in.

Another way we could go would be third base. We took a 3Bman in the first-round last year in Brett Wallace, but he is currently being converted to a first baseman. If the power-hitting Brett Wallace is in fact expected to be a first baseman, then we still need to build up our depth at the 3B position. Excluding Wallace, we do not have a prospect a 3B. If I am the GM, I want a prospect or two at every single position. And while I like the options at 3B after round one, there are very few good third basemen high up on the Draft board.

So, if I was John Mozeliak, I would take one of the many starting pitching prospects that will make up the first round.

There are plenty of them to choose from. With so many great pitchers available, and the need for starting pitching, I think we would be stupid not to take a SP. Also, I have a philosophy that great pitching beats great hitting. Front Offices in the NFL often take the defense-first approach when assembling a team. Take the Baltimore Raves for example… They go defense, defense, defense and that works. It is very similar to how I would build the Cardinals. While I prefer offense over defense in the NFL, I think to be a good team you must have great starting pitchers in the MLB.

In five years, I guarantee Carpenter, Piniero, and Wellemeyer will not be as good as they are now. Just looking over what we have right now, it would be a rotation similar to Waino, Lohse, Garcia, Walters, and then we start stretching. While Jockety would have traded a couple prospects for a veteran SP, I prefer the build-from-within approach. Replenish that stock pile every year to where you have an up-and-coming prospect making an MLB debut every year. Pretty soon you have 27 year old, in-prime stars making up your team.

At the 19^th position in the draft this year, the Cards organization may not have a ton of starters to choose front. Most of the superstars will be taken already, but I can assure you there are still some MLB All Stars out there.

The phenomenal Steven Strasburg will likely be taken with the #1 pick by the Nationals who will eventually get over the fact that they have to give him a 55 million dollar MLB contract just to sign him. Aaron Crow will be taken in the top-5 for the second consecutive year. Missouri’s very own Kyle Gibson also leads the pack of super-prospects in the ’09 Draft.

With those guys gone by the time we are up to select, there will only be a few options to go with in taking a starter. The could look at the hard-throwing James Paxton from Kentucky, the polished lefty from Vanderbilt in Mike Minor, or the controversial but solid Andy Oliver.

Hey, those guys are pretty damn good, but the one player that I am eyeing down is Rex Brothers from Lipscomb. He has been flying up the draft boards with every start he has had. In 75 innings pitched this season, he has 112 strikeouts… which are behind only Strasburg’s total of 147 in the Nation.

For pure arm-strength, Brothers is near the top of the lefty crop for 2009; scouts say it’s the best they have ever seen. He throws 92-95 MPH in the first inning and still hits those velocities in the sixth.  More impressively, he holds those velocities whether he throws the ball high, low, or from the stretch. Brothers is what you’d call “effectively wild” with his fastball.  I expect his fastball command to become average in the future. Similar to Joel Zumaya’s fastball to be honest.

Brothers’s slider is a hard one in the 84-87 MPH range. It has a hard downward bite to the point it looks like a curvball. Brothers’ slider isn’t a strikeout pitch as much as a miss-the-wood-barrel pitch. It is certainly average now but project it to plus.  I think it can become a major bat-breaker against wood.

He rarely throws his changeup, but he does have one at about the 82-84 MPH range.  They are mostly straight, but he says he doesn’t have a lot of feel for it yet.  In time, it should be an okay show-me pitch. 

So you have a lefty who should be durable (because of his middle and lower-body strength, okay arm-action) with a plus velocity fastball and a future plus slider.  He showed a good amount of poise too; he doesn’t have a very good team behind him and that makes for a lot of squibbler hits.  When facing Rex, do not expect to make good contact… He refuses to let up a big hit.

Some teams will knock him down for his body-type, seeing that he has minimal projection, and the risk of becoming overweight. I agree he’s not projectable, but don’t think his body is bad at all for a pitcher and there are plenty of overweight hurlers in the big leagues, if he should go that direction. He’s very strong and athletic. Brothers even shows nimble feel with his quick pickoff throw.

I think he’s got a real chance to fall into the Cardinals’ lap at #19, and he’s quite the package.  I’m not shocked if he is drafted before the Cards though. Only time will tell, but Brothers is the kind of pitcher who can become a quality #2/#3 for a contender.  He should move through the lower minors quickly and get through AA and AAA by gaining more command of the corners.

Cardinal management would be silly not to take a hurler. I’m just saying… IF I was John Mozeliak, I would draft Rex Brothers.

Even With Carp Coming Back, We Need More

Phillip Hughes

Coming into the season, everybody was freaking out over the Cardinals pitching staff. I heard that our pitching was equal to “paper and glue”.

We had Wainwright as our ace, we were hoping for a similar 2008 season from Lohse, hoping the rejuvenated Wellemeyer kept it up, hoping Pineiro came in with the same contract-year approach that Lohse had, and of course we had that Carpenter guy.

Speaking of the Carpenter guy, he is doing great. Word is he’s coming back within the next ten days. Carp had a bullpen session yesterday, and ANOTHER bullpen session today. He is starting to gain form once again. Coaches say there is a good chance that he will not make any rehab starts, and just join the rotation ASAP. If I was John Mozeliak, I would give him one start at the AAA level. After that, I would see how the start went. If it went relatively well then bring him back in. It is obvious that we can survive with him on the DL, so why not make sure everything is okay before bringing him back into the rotation?

Another weak point in our pitching staff was on the opposite end of the spectrum. Our bullpen was pisspoor in 2008. We watched blown save, after blown save, after another blown save. Jason Isringhausen is out, Mark Worrell was traded to the Padres, and Looper was cut loose as well. So basically we lost our closer; who we were relying on shutting the door for another couple years. Not only that, but we lost a guy that gave us a good performance every fifth day. Looper was underrated. Last year was undoubtedly his best as a closer – ERA barely above four. He is also very versatile. If we have a young spot starter come in and dominate, we can always move Looper to the ‘pen. Hell, the dude was a reliever for nearly ten straight years. It’s often easier said than done with converting SP to RP, but it would have been simple with Looper.

So coming in, here is how our staff looks and how they have done so far:

Rotation:
1) Wainwright… 3-1, 4.08 ERA, 30 Ks
2) Carpenter (DL)… 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks
3) Lohse… 3-1, 3.22 ERA, 23 Ks
4) Piniero… 4-1, 3.24 ERA, 10 Ks
5) Wellemeyer… 3-2, 4.75 ERA, 20 Ks
5) Boggs… 1-0, 3.50 ERA, 19 Ks

Bullpen:
CP) Franklin… 9 saves, 0.00 ERA, 11 Ks
SU) Motte… 6 holds, 3.55 ERA, 10 Ks
RP) McClellan… 3 holds, 2.70 ERA, 13 Ks
RP) Perez… 2 holds, 2.25 ERA, 11 Ks
RP) Boyer… 1 hold, 3.60 ERA, 5 Ks
RP) Reyes… 4 holds, 4.00, 8 Ks
RP) Miller… 1 hold, 4.32 ERA, 10 Ks

After the Opening Day debacle (trust me, I was there), everybody was ready to throw in the towel on this team and, especially, our bullpen. Motte was the most hated dude in St. Louis. For example, when leaving the ballpark, a loud-mouth fan yells, “Hey Motte, I think my slow-pitch softball team needs a f***** catcher if you are interested!” It was funny at the time, but actually pretty ignorant. Little did the guy know… Motte actually was once a catcher!

After that game, Motte and the rest of the ‘pen have been lights out. Since that memorable 9^th inning, Motte has pitched 11.2 innings and only allowed one run. He has been dominant in the setup role, but will one day be our closer. He has all the makings of a great, shutdown, closer. The confidence and swagger he has is making some Cardinal fans despise him. Not me. That is a characteristic that EVERY closer needs. He needs to come in with the mindset of “I am the best closer ever”… Basically, in his head, he needs to know he is the shit.

All St. Louis fans, including me, were yelling at Mozeliak saying “GET A RELIEVER! WE DON’T EVEN HAVE A FREAKING CLOSER!” Nobody was really sure what was going to happen when we reached the late innings. However, now that we are through the first sixth of the season, it seems like the focus of concern has shifted. Granted, MO did go out and get Blaine Boyer, who I believe has some unreal potential as a reliever OR starter, but he isn’t the solution we were calling for. He may end up being Todd Wellemeyer in a nutshell, which would be a good thing, but he will only be a decent reliever at best this year.

In early-April we would have done anything for a good late inning type of guy, but I think we will be okay there. In fact, I think we will continue to have a very solid bullpen. If I was John Mozeliak, I would go get a starting pitcher right now.

The first thing most people think is why? Chris Carpenter will be pitching again within a week and a half. Lohse is still locked in. Piniero is having one of his best seasons of his career. And Wainwright will come around. Why go out and give something up (player of money) for a starter? I’ll give you three good reasons why.

1. Carpenter is notoriously known for getting injured. He had his best performance since 2006 with his first start this season. Don’t be fooled though. That wasn’t because he ran into a rough patch in his career. It was his best performance since ’06 because he hasn’t been healthy since then. And when he does come back, he always has some ridiculous injury that screws the Cards for months on end. When Carp is healthy, the Cardinals are great… but what leads us to believe we haven’t seen the last of his injuries this year?

2. We have zero depth at the SP position. We have young guns that will one day be good starters in the MLB, but they are inexperienced and it shows. They’re simply not ready for the next level. I think P.J. Walters has potential to be an ace. The same thing with Mitchell Boggs and Jaime Garcia. In fact, I can see Garcia having the same emergence as Yovani Gallardo has had with the Brew Crew. Call me crazy, but he is our best SP prospect and has major potential.

3. We are hoping that things work out with Piniero and Lohse. Both of those guys have not been lock-down pitchers all their career. They were revived when they came to STL, but it’s been rough outside of the past year for both. How many pitchers do we have that are a sure thing every fifth day? Wainwright and Carpenter when available. Again, do we know that Carp will be with us for the rest of the season? We don’t. There are a lot of questions with this rotation.

So, with that in mind, I would go out and get a good #2-3 starting pitcher. There was speculation of two deals with American League teams, New York and Detroit. In the Detroit trade, I had heard we wanted Brandon Inge (for 3B) and a prospect pitcher. Who we were going to give up was never released, but you have to imagine Ankiel was in the mix. With the Yankees trade, it was pretty straight-up. Rick Ankiel for Phillip Hughes. There was never a deal offered, I don’t think, but I know that there was talk.

I am here to say one thing… CALL CASHMAN UP!

We have a surplus of very good outfielders, if you have not noticed. Chris Duncan is crushing the ball so far (as I predicted), Studwick is being his normal self as an offensive powerhouse, and Colby Rasmus is proving he is ready. Everybody loves Ankiel, and loves his story, but I think pitchers have figured him out. In his first season, he was literally hitting on all cylinders. However, 2008 and 2009 so far was ugly. He just does not look comfortable out there and I have to think that the guys have figured him out. Pitchers are proving my theory by refusing to throw him fastballs. He puts fastballs into the upperdeck, but he looks like a AA player when trying to hit a big-league curveball.

The good thing about it is people love him and he still has value. The Yankees need him too. With Xavier Nady out for possibly the entire season, the Yankees are looking to make a move. They have a HUGE hole in centerfield (dude named Gardner is starting there now), and that does not sit well with Cashman.

For those of you Cardinal fans who do not know who Phillip Hughes is, he’s one of the top Yankee prospects. A couple years ago, he was the #1 prospect in baseball. He was the first-round pick of the Yanks in 2004 and has torched the minors thus far. Hughes is currently fighting for a spot in the rotation.

You want a taste of what we would be getting with Hughes?
April 28 at Detroit: 6.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 6 Ks

I’m just saying… That’s what I would do IF I was John Mozeliak.